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The Carlos Ghosn Exfiltration: Reportedly Packed In A Musical Instrument Case, The Ex-Nissan/Renault Chair Has Fled Bail To Beirut

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According to the early reports out of Beirut, embattled former Nissan/Renault chair Carlos Ghosn fled his his Japanese bail by packing himself into a large musical instrument case in the possession of what has been characterized as a group of "Gregorian musicians," who had apparently been permitted to play at his residence. It's doubtful that they were musicians, but they did remain inside the home for the approximate length of an engagement before packing to leave. However he left his residence, in a spectacularly drawn-out legal case in Japan featuring multiple jailings and a hard-fought bail agreement, the meticulously planned exfiltration was a daring and most flamboyant flourish.

One condition of the bail was 24/7 video surveillance, and, according to reports, the residence was strictly monitored. Unclear at this point is how and exactly when, within the home, the diminutive (5'6," reportedly) former automobile executive spirited himself out of the house — into the musical instrument case, if he did that. His wife Carole, who is widely considered to have been integral to the exfiltration, has since maintained that it did not happen this way. But it's worth noting in passing that among the largest man-sized musical instrument cases are those for the double bass. A 7/8 size classical double bass is about 75 inches in length, or 6'3" — its appropriately padded hard case would be several inches longer.

Arguably the greater mystery is how Ghosn got aboard the waiting plane — whether in or out of an instrument case. Japanese authorities have stated that there is no record of Ghosn's departure from Japan, which suggests that he must have been ghosted through customs and terminal security toward the airside in some fashion, again, in the putative instrument case or out. There are only two possibilities: Either he underwent some form of scrutiny, or he evaded it.

To bypass customs and security on his own two feet, out of the instrument case, Ghosn would have required (presumably falsified) local ID permitting access to the tarmac, or a least a loophole in that airport's system that his security team could exploit to gain him lightly-screened tarmac access. If his team's plan called for him to be boarded inside the instrument case, the case would still theoretically have been subjected to cursory inspection as all cabin or hold baggage would, be that a simple visual check by a human, explosive-residue swipes, or some form of irradiated scan. Which would have been a white-knuckle moment for the Ghosn team, if it happened.

We don't know quite how they danced through the hurdles of scrutiny yet, but it's fair to say that the local airport would have been researched and chosen for a less invasive security posture. Expressed numerically, if a security regime at Airport A is three-to-five percent less stringent than the security regime of Airport B, by mounting their operation at the former, an exfil team can convert that amount of defensive thought and planning into offensive exploitation of the actual hurdles in their way. It increases their chances of success.

In Beirut, a formerly divided town in which many famous kidnappings, in- and exfiltrations have occurred, it was confirmed that Ghosn is holed up with his wife in a house in Achrafiyeh, one of Beirut's more well-heeled districts east of Hamra and uphill from the center of town. The house is a gracious, well-kept French colonial town house, and it's been reported, though not confirmed, that he owns it. Ghosn enjoys popular support in Lebanon, with ''Free Carlos Ghosn'' billboards appearing around Beirut in the last year. Significantly, Lebanon has no extradition treaty with Japan.

In general, Ghosn's bail terms were viewed by some as unnecessarily punitive, certainly by Ghosn himself, who regularly railed against what he sees as the political aspects of the case. As part of those bail conditions, his three passports – Brazilian, Lebanese, and French – had been surrendered to his Japanese lawyer, Junichiro Hironaka, who seemed as flummoxed as everybody else by the exfiltration. Japanese broadcaster NHK contradicts these details slightly, claiming that the Japanese government had allowed Ghosn's lawyer to keep only a second French passport under lock and key. Whether Ghosn had three passports or four, Hironaka last saw his client on Christmas Day and, at the time of the lawyer's Dec. 31 press conference, he stated that he still had Ghosn's passports, plural, in his possession.

Which raises several questions about Ghosn's current travel documents. There were two private flights involved in the escape, the first of which departed from what's described as a 'local airport' not enormously far from his residence. That waiting private jet flew him from Tokyo to Istanbul, where he boarded a second private jet, a Bombardier, that flew him on that last hop home to Beirut. He would have been breathing somewhat easier once he crossed out of Japanese air space, but a question remains about the necessity of a transfer in Istanbul, since, on a westward flight path out of Tokyo, the plane would in essence have had to overfly Beirut.

And the answer to that would be: Yet another tip of the hat to the planners of this extensive operation. A one-way flight plan to Istanbul doesn't necessarily raise many immigration hackles. But if you're filing a flight plan from Tokyo to Beirut on December 30, and there is one high-profile, scandal-ridden Lebanese citizen (with real estate in the stated destination, Beirut) in Japanese custody who has been the subject of headlines for months, those parameters stand a chance of red-flagging a need for a closer inspection of any Beirut-bound plane, its passenger manifest and contents. Ergo: Ghosn's team would want to "wash" his plane's itinerary with a (in Japanese customs' view) clean destination.

According to Flight Radar, the Beirut-bound Bombardier arrived at Rafik Hariri International just south of Beirut at 4:16 a.m. on December 31. Lebanese foreign ministry officials have stated that Ghosn arrived "normally" and was processed through Beirut customs on a French passport. Reportedly, he also wielded what's been called a Lebanese ID upon entering the country. The one thing that seems certain is that, at some point before the Istanbul transfer, Ghosn was well out of the musical instrument case for those presentations.

Taken together, the scope, high risk, and success of the operation suggest professional involvement. Many places have an abundance of such expertise, but Beirut's 15-year-long civil war and the consistent engagement of multiple intelligence services in Beirut as a gateway to the Middle East, not to mention as a gateway to the Syrian civil war, means there is quite a lot of the clandestine skill-set on offer in town.

There will be much more to come in the coming days on Ghosn's daring leap from custody and its wrecking-ball effect on his case in Japan, including the fate of any remaining assets he put up to satisfy the bail requirement. But if, as rumored, Ghosn's wife Carole turns out to be the true author of this laudably slick operation, then the Japanese prosecutors and justice system will have failed to recognize that, despite seemingly great obstacles put in her way, such as forbidding contact between the pair for months on end, Carole Ghosn found a way back to her husband.

A rumored concert by "musicians," a putative man-sized travel case for what's thought to have been a large musical instrument, two private planes, two sets of pilots, and no ostensible travel documents until well out of the hostile host country — the Ghosn's exfiltration's architecture is of the finest quality. A friend of Ghosn's in Beirut summed it up best to the press, saying simply: "It's a big adventure."

From Beirut, through one of his lawyers, Ghosn has announced a press conference for next Wednesday, January 8.