Sherwood
Tuesday Dec.17, 2019

H&M uses the "Moneyball" strategy

_H&M nails the holiday shopping spree_
_H&M nails the holiday shopping spree_

Hey Snackers,

No rush — take your time with this Snacks. We just found out that deadlines make you over-eat.

Markets rose for a 4th straight day Monday, creeping up to a fresh record high.

Style

H&M's savvy data-driven moves to save fast fashion are working

The moth-eaten shirt wasn't a hit in Europe... For decades, H&M designers visited fashion shows and flipped through glossy magazines to spot what was on trend, then bulk-ordered cheaper versions for their stores. The result: the same “fast-fashion” styles delivered to H&M's nearly 5,000 stores, cookie-cutter style. That worked (until it didn’t).

  • Wasted fabric: The cover-all-bases approach missed for many shoppers, leading to billions of dollars in unsold clothes piling up. H&M sales shrank the past 2 years, and shares plummeted 51% in the last 5 years.
  • Discount rack: H&M had to aggressively slash prices (and even burn clothes it couldn't sell, donate, or Secret-Santa away).

Data = dollas... On Monday, H&M announced it's on track to increase profits for the first time in 4 years, thanks to a huge strategy shift. A couple years ago, H&M stepped up its analysis game, hiring hundreds of data scientists to help make savvier predictions of what clothes go to each store. American shoppers probably aren't into the same rompers as Russian shoppers are.

Drop the "Squad Goals" graphic tees... H&M stepped back and reassessed before clicking "Add to Cart." Instead of using humans to scout trends (like most retailers do), H&M now combs through social media posts, search queries, and the receipts of returned clothes — it better predicts what's earned a spot on the rack:

  • H&M sees that its store in a swanky Stockholm neighborhood is mostly visited by upper middle-class women.
  • So it removes bland basics for men and kids and swaps them with fashion-forward floral skirts, cashmere sweaters, and $118 leather bags.
  • The end goal? Make less clothing that people don't want. Survive the retail apocalypse.
Compute

Intel needs another era of profitability — So it's dropping $2B on a chip company

Multi-generational success is rare... The Celtics, Yankees, and Jedi all achieved it. Intel's sound logo reminded us during every commercial that Intel was inside our computers. But as PC sales disappeared, Intel is searching for its second wave of profits. So it just swiped its corporate card for a $2B acquisition of Israeli startup Habana Labs.

  • 2016: Habana hid in "stealth mode" for 2 years, attracting $120M from venture capital to fund under-the-radar research and development.
  • 2018: Habana unveiled Goya, a chip that processes almost 4x faster than NVIDIA, the market leader.
  • Right now: Habana's spearheading Intel's efforts to power data centers with fancy machine learning (more on those below).

Machines can learn... courtesy of chips made of silicon. As the world puts all its computer files on Google Drive, iCloud, and Amazon Web Services, tech companies need to organize that data ASAP. Picture this: Search "dog" in your photos folder:

  • The results are actually the pictures you took of dogs.
  • Your phone's software learned that a 4-legged object with a sloppy tongue who's always smiling is a dog.
  • Intel thinks this type of artificial intelligence powering will become a $25B industry by 2024.

Intel's acquiring instead of building... because its last DIY job was a disaster. In 2016, Apple selected Intel as its go-to iPhone chip-maker. When it was time to upgrade to 5G (aka right now), Intel couldn't deliver, so Apple switched to rival Qualcomm. After investing $16B in its smartphone division, Intel had to sell it away for only $1B to Apple. This time, it's acquiring so it can move faster. That Apple loss still burns Intel's RAM.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Beyond Pork: Tyson pumps out chicken nuggets — now it's been cleared to export chicken parts unpopular in the US (like feet) to China after a 5-year ban
  • Ship-for-Tat: Amazon bans its sellers from using FedEx for ground shipments because it claims to be worried about FedEx's ability to deliver the holiday load on-time
  • Join 'Em: Uber is reportedly selling its Uber Eats biz in India to a local competitor for a hearty $400M — if you can't beat 'em, implement the "Dominate or Exit Strategy"
  • Accused: Apple, Google, and Tesla were 3 of the companies sued for contributing to child labor deaths in Congolese cobalt mines (it's a critical metal component in lithium ion batteries)
  • Grounded: Boeing is America's biggest manufacturing exporter — shares fell 4% on official word that it's halting production of the 737 Max until it gets re-approved to actually carry humans

Tuesday

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Amazon, Uber, Alphabet, Tesla, and Apple.

ID: 1038627

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339% raise

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More importantly, however, Nintendo finally gave something of update on the Switch’s successor, which is now set to be announced in the coming fiscal year.

Although Switch sales have stayed surprisingly strong... they’re still falling, highlighting how difficult the business of game hardware can be. You need a new hit every 7-10 years, as sales typically peak 3-5 years after release before dropping sharply. That slowdown is beginning to flow through to Nintendo’s bottom line, with the company forecasting a ~40% annual drop in profit this year, per CNBC. The Switch sequel, whatever it looks like, has some big shoes to fill.

Nintendo console sales

More importantly, however, Nintendo finally gave something of update on the Switch’s successor, which is now set to be announced in the coming fiscal year.

Although Switch sales have stayed surprisingly strong... they’re still falling, highlighting how difficult the business of game hardware can be. You need a new hit every 7-10 years, as sales typically peak 3-5 years after release before dropping sharply. That slowdown is beginning to flow through to Nintendo’s bottom line, with the company forecasting a ~40% annual drop in profit this year, per CNBC. The Switch sequel, whatever it looks like, has some big shoes to fill.

Nintendo console sales