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"Swapflation" could be coming: coffee is getting pricier — and possibly less tasty

Snacks / Tuesday, August 17, 2021

Dropped my double-shot latte... The cost of coffee beans has soared 43% so far this year, according to NYT. A combo of factors are making beans more expensive:

  • Cold brew: An unusual frost in Brazil — the world’s largest coffee producer — is expected to cause this year’s Brazilian coffee crop to drop a whopping 19% from last year.
  • Bitter brew: Political turmoil in Colombia — the world’s third-largest producer — caused bean output to fall 52% in May from last year.
  • Slow brew: Supply chain bottlenecks and labor shortages have also slowed delivery times.

Caffeine jitters... Folgers and many independent coffee shops plan to pass on costs to consumers by raising prices. Meanwhile, Starbucks and Nestlé buy their beans so far in advance that they won’t have to worry about price increases for at least a year. But they still might raise prices (venti macchiato isn't safe). Besides hiking prices...

  • Java giants might consider "swapflation." We've seen it before: in 2012, the roaster for Chock full o’Nuts swapped out popular arabica beans for cheaper, but less premium, “robusta” beans. Prices for arabica beans are up 50% in the past 12 months.

“Swapflation” could be coming... and not just in coffee. Companies can deal with rising costs in three ways: raise prices (#inflation), shrink products (#shrinkflation), or swap ingredients (#swapflation). Companies know that consumers hate paying extra for the same products — so some may swap in cheaper ingredients to cover price hikes.

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